When we described the aftermath of Turkey’s failed, and painfully disorganized military coup attempt, we asked rhetorically, “Who wins?” To which we answered: “Why Erdogan of course. As he said during a press conference upon his arrival back in Istanbul in the early Saturday morning hours, the coup is an opportunity to “to purge the military.” Erdogan also vowed to exact “the highest price” from the perpetrators. Or, to summarize, the military said Erdogan’s power consolidation justifies the attempted coup; Erdogan said the coup justifies further consolidation of power.

Overnight, when analyzing the market’s take of the coup, Renaissance Capital’s Michael Harris said that “for markets to respond positively, we think Erdogan must go the reconciliation route, pledging not to hold elections for the coming year and committing to a consensus approach to constitutional change. More likely, though, Erdogan will seek to leverage this into a constitutional super-majority via a snap election.”

Their conclusion: “A military coup has failed, but if Erdogan responds to this historic moment the wrong way, a democratic coup could be the result.

Not surprisingly, as of this morning, Erdogan is indeed responding to this historic moment the “wrong way.” But before we get to that point, there Read Full Article

Source: Zero Hedge via Feedburner

What do the coup attempt in Turkey, Donald Trump’s US presidential candidacy, the Brexit referendum, and the rise of populist parties in France, Germany, and elsewhere have in common? They all reflect deep anxieties among many citizens about the functioning of their democracies and the openness of their societies.

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Source: Project Syndicate

Trading, in any market, is about taking risk on board. Successful trading, however, is about respecting that risk and managing it accordingly, and a large part of that management is being aware of when risk could be out of your control. On Wednesday of this week, when the EIA released their weekly inventory report, the WTI futures market demonstrated why data release points are one of those times. When I was working in foreign exchange dealing rooms we were subject to very few hard and fast rules, but squaring up in front of major figures such… Read Full Article

Source: OilPrice.com

The latest report from Wood Mackenzie on U.S. and other non-OPEC oil exploration and production into 2025 is worthy of a very deep dive, because it gives terrific information, not just on where U.S. oil will be coming from in the next 10 years, but where the best likely places to invest will be. I truly rely upon Wood Mackenzie as one of the finest, if not the finest energy analytics service out there – and their latest report serves as a tremendous template for our investment purposes. While the report is fairly long and wonky, the major… Read Full Article

Source: OilPrice.com

After EU-member states agreed on a Commission proposal, the EU will invest €263 million in key gas and electricity projects across the Union with primary focus on the Baltic Sea region. The European Commission announced on Friday (15 July) in a press release that the 28 member states agreed to invest €263 million in trans-European energy infrastructure projects. The biggest share of the support will be destined to the Baltic Sea region to help the expansion of the gas infrastructure, meanwhile the other part of the investment will support… Read Full Article

Source: OilPrice.com