1:35 p.m. EST, April 21 update: Back on February 11th, gold turned in a spike high of $1263.90 on an intraday basis. Though gold was able to move higher after that spike during March for a brief moment, there has been a visible pattern of the mid $1260s price level serving as a “no mas” price range. Given that, it’s not surprising to see gold hit this morning, despite the fact that we actually made it through the COMEX open before the miscreants acted.
Silver has been on a tear and it broke away from suppression efforts earlier this month. Gold getting into the $1260s again is likely the proximate trigger for today’s raid. Getting both metals down as next week’s COMEX contract expirations approach is the ultimate near-term goal (see below for contract expiration dates). The epic battle I discussed in my original article below is starting today.
Jim Wyckoff over at Kitco is chalking up today’s gold decline to profit taking, “an upbeat U.S. jobless claims report that showed the lowest claims number since 1973” (Wyckoff loves his headline-informed reality) and a rebound in the dollar. The dollar’s rebound came on the back of a morning swan dive, and it’s a fact that Wyckoff and the entire “editorial team” over at Kitco have selective focus on the dollar. When it’s possible to blame a gold correction on a correlated move, however tenuous the case, that is the analysis we see. But when the correlation breaks down, as it has many times this year, that inconvenient fact is usually ignored.
Critics like to accuse people like me as “permabulls” for gold, regardless of my actual analysis and forecasting record of publicly rejecting the insane hype that comes to my industry from time to time (e.g., the bogus start and end date formulation for cycles that was behind the bogus justification for last September’s “Shemitah” thesis many where bleating about; rejection of the truly uninformed early June, 2015 hysteria about Greece’s debt payment schedule that had “analysts” ignoring the IMF “bundling” option that even duped one of the Tylers over at ZeroHedge, and many other examples). The Wyckoffs of this world, however, almost NEVER fess-up to manipulation of precious metals markets. The last time Wyckoff was forced to say anything of substance admitting that gold manipulation is a reality was the April, 2013 raid, when over 400 metric tons of notional value of gold (and some of that was actual physical) was dumped into the OTC market over a Friday evening through Sunday evening thinly traded session. That raid was so damn big it was impossible to not look like a retard were one to call that “normal” profit taking. Wykoff, Dennis Gartman and all the analysts and pundits in denial about the gold cartel backpedaled and called reality for what it was, lest they looked like fools. The mainstream is fumbling around today, trying to come up with justifications for why precious metals sold off after the COMEX open. Next week’s contract expiration is the “concern” and immediate motivation, even if the Wykoffs of the world say otherwise.
Regardless, the precious metals bull market is alive and well. The global economy is rolling over and the downturn has already washed over the United States. The lion’s share of economic data already shows this, even with massaged government statistics. The equity and bond markets are in precarious positions given high valuations, declining corporate profits, goosed earnings per share figures that have benefited from over one trillion in stock buy backs driven by cheap credit, driven by central bankers blowing multiple bubbles. The Fed is trapped, unable to “normalize” interest rates lest they break markets. This truly is a cl*sterfuck, and I’m only scratching the surface. The epic battle over the next few trading days is not going to kill this new phase of the precious metals bull market run. — EricDubin
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TND Market Commentary: Eric Dubin
Wednesday’s trading session brought some healthy profit taking and price management by the usual miscreants. The COMEX gold session was particularly aggravating to watch, given the suspect pattern gold traced, with gold basically following the same pattern as the day before, and held under the previous day’s trading. The pattern match is unusual. Granted, this happens in many markets from time to time. But in precious metals trading, odd things like this happen nearly every week. That is not normal market activity.
The vast majority of the financial world doesn’t even bother to take notice, because most people in the industry – including retail investors – simply look at gold and silver on a closing basis for either London or COMEX trading. To my knowledge, there hasn’t been a single occasion on CNBC America when someone has discussed the regularity these bizarre patterns occur in gold and silver. Go figure. CNBC “journalists” and producers are stenographers to power.
A funny thing happened following gold’s COMEX after-market smack-down. Buying interest in this ongoing bull market reboot has reasserted itself, yet again:
Silver is all the more impressive, particularly given the major move silver has made over the last couple of weeks:
Yesterday’s trading will prove to be a pause that refreshes. The sell-off in silver was productive because some of the speculative momentum that has built-up over the last week was subsequently tapered.
Last Monday, Jason Burack and I discussed silver’s unusual trading with GATA’s Bill Murphy: GATA Vindicated *BUT* Deutsche Bank a Limited Hangout – Bill Murphy, Welcome To Dystopia 19. In his Wednesday MIDAS newsletter, Bill Murphy reiterated: “Silver continues to trade differently than it did for so many years. After filling its gap left from yesterday’s (Tuesday) COMEX close, the price went right back up and refused to back off like it has done for what seems like forever, until these past days. It is like a light switch was suddenly turned on.”
Light switch, indeed. Now, as I type, we’re deep into the Asian trading session and, gold and silver are flipping the cartel the bird. To say this is unusual is an epic understatement. This bull market is alive and well, and it has been many years since we’ve seen this sort of bucking cartel attacks and profit taking, and absorption of a mountain of new contract issuance on the COMEX, which has the net impact of sopping up rising demand. But unlike similar periods, this contract issuance and new shorting is being met with even more aggressive long-side buying interest. Soon, COMEX silver open interest will likely cross 200,000 contracts, and yet we keep motoring higher.
Next week the COMEX silver trading calendar is loaded with significant contract dates. On Tuesday, May 2016 silver options go off the board. The following day:
- May 2016 E-mini Silver Futures – Last Trade Date
- April 2016 Silver Futures – Last Trade Date
- April 2016 1,000-oz. Silver Futures – Last Trade Date
We’re setting up for an epic battle, and if silver keeps motoring forward, we may very well have an $18 handle on silver smack in the middle of the expiring contracts window. Buckle-up! There’s going to be fireworks, one way or another. Tune into this weekend’s Silver Doctors Weekly Metals & Markets podcast. I’ll have more to say about what might happen next week. Doc and I will be interviewing John Embry from Sprott. It will prove to be an insightful and timely interview.
Back on March 14th, I observed conditions that clearly indicated the Gold/Silver Ratio was about to reverse from its extreme mid 80s level. I took some flack last month when I published “Cartel Huffs and Puffs and Tries To Blow Precious Metals House Down.” Nevertheless, I was proven exactly correct:
“Through the raid that we are witnessing now, silver will take a bigger percentage beating. But when we get on the other side of this nonsense following the completion of necessary repair time, the Gold Silver Ratio is going to start falling as silver begins to rise faster in percentage terms than gold. Naysayers will scoff as they read these words, but within ONLY about a month, the GSR is going to start trending in favor of silver in a way that will add further confirmation to those that need further confirmation that this new precious metals market bull is alive and well.” (link)
Now, silver is roaring to the upside, leading gold (and the miners are confirming, rocketing higher right along with silver). Naysayers, wake-up! We are witnessing the unfolding of the third phase of a gigantic precious metals bull market, and the vast majority of the Western-based conventional financial world is absolutely clueless about this unfolding bull market. But by this summer, when the traditional “summer doldrums” go AWOL, there will be fewer naysayers. Traditional bull markets climb a “wall of worry.” With precious metals bull markets, we not only climb a wall of worry, but must slog through mainstream ignorance about true fundamentals and the existence of massive government-mandated manipulation. Nevertheless, this precious metals bull snorts on…